Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
Our panelists have largely maintained their CENAM GDP growth forecasts for 2025 for the fourth consecutive month. That said, they continue to expect regional growth to soften from 2024 as momentum in private spending and fixed investment cools. Downside risks include global trade uncertainty weighing on exports plus mass U.S. deportations curbing remittances.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
CENAM inflation came in at January’s level in February, and available data suggests it remained elevated in March. Our Consensus is for inflation to average above 2024’s rate and its pre-pandemic level overall in 2025 on declining interest rates and depreciating currencies. That said, lower oil and food costs should cap the rise. Food price spikes are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | - | - | 4.5 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 62.5 | 58.3 | 54.8 | 52.3 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 74.2 | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 151.9 | 190.6 | 232.6 | 225.3 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 6.0 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,438 | 6,075 | 6,718 | 7,208 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -7.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 3.2 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | - | - | 5.6 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.1 | -2.3 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.05 | 2.46 | 6.35 | 5.66 | 4.95 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.3 | - | -1.7 | -0.4 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 132.5 | 151.5 | 171.8 | 166.0 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 73.6 | 68.0 | 64.2 | 61.6 | - |