Major Economies Economic Outlook
Over the past month, our panelists have downgraded the Consensus for all G7 countries bar France as global tariff fears ratcheted up. The U.S. is still forecast to be the G7’s standout performer in 2025. Other G7 nations will see weaker growth—particularly the three largest Euro area economies, which are all seen recording growth rates below 1%.
Major Economies Inflation
In February vs January, inflation rose in Canada as a temporary tax break ended, while falling or remaining steady in the rest of the G7. Inflation is projected to exceed central banks’ 2.0% targets this year, following upward revisions this year driven by growing U.S. protectionism. However, declines in average commodity prices are expected to help contain prices.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -5.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -3.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.5 | -4.9 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 133 | 127 | 121 | 120 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.03 | -0.02 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 3.71 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 48,773 | 53,997 | 55,092 | 58,283 | 60,343 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,979 | 3,821 | 3,812 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,938 | 4,768 | 5,518 | 5,191 | 5,341 |