Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
The region’s economy is set to grow faster in 2025 than it did in 2024 and outpace the 2014–2023 average of 2.5%, according to our Consensus. Oil production is expected to pick up from April, while non-oil sectors—especially in Saudi Arabia and the UAE—should surge. Key developments to watch include U.S. trade moves plus the Hamas–Israel and Yemen conflicts.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Inflation across MENA economies will remain uneven this year, though less so than in recent years as currencies in Egypt and Lebanon begin to stabilize. In economies with U.S. dollar pegs, price growth should stay subdued. That said, risks lean to the upside—ranging from potential devaluations and supply chain disruptions to conflict and surging food costs.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.4 | - | 7.4 | - | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 1.5 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 774 | 890 | 783 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.4 | -2.9 | 2.6 | - | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.1 | 4.4 | 9.5 | - | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.0 | - | 19.7 | - | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.4 | 53.0 | 43.6 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 7.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.09 | 1.99 | 5.61 | 6.74 | 6.75 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 49.2 | 45.2 | 40.3 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 840 | 1,173 | 1,215 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,034 | 1,115 | 1,147 | 1,218 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,070 | 8,478 | 9,965 | 9,245 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.9 | 5.5 | 11.1 | -0.5 | - |